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Population Projections

Red Deer will continue to experience strong growth according to The City of Red Deer Population Projection Update 2007 - 2031 completed by Schollie Research and Consulting.

Average population growth rate for the next five years is anticipated to be similar to what has been experienced over the past five years, which is approximately 4%. This assumes that the economic growth in the past years will sustain population growth levels for this period.

Over the next 25 years (2006 to 2031), The City of Red Deer is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.43 per cent annually. The slower growth rate used over the longer term in the population projection is reflective of an aging population and lower birth rate.

By comparison, the province of Alberta is projected to grow at a rate of 1.43 per cent annually (Source: Population projections for Alberta and its Health Regions 2003 - 2030.)

The complete population projection report projects population trends based on low, baseline and high growth scenarios. The baseline projection is considered the 'most likely' scenario.

Projected Population Growth - 2007 to 2031

Scenario

2007-2011 Average Annual Growth

2011 Projection

2012-2026 Average Annual Growth

2026 Projection

2027-2031 Average Annual Growth

2031 Projection

Projection Period Average Growth

Low Growth

3.55 %

98,774

1.38 %

121,241

2.40 %

136,502

2.02 %

Baseline

4.00 %

100,941

1.76 %

131,049

2.90 %

151,182

2.43 %

High Growth

5.00 %

105,888

2.56 %

154,599

3.65 %

184,945

3.26 %

Source: Schollie Research and Consulting (2006)

Notes:
Baseline projections use the following assumptions:

  • As per provincial and national trends, Red Deer fertility rates will generally decline and death rates will increase slowly.
  • Migration rates will be influenced by economic growth.
  • Average population growth for 2007 to 2011 will be similar to the average growth over the past five years.
Population Projection: Gender
In terms of the male-female split in Red Deer, there were more women than men in 2006. The population distribution between males and females is almost even and is projected to continue until 2031. 

Census Year

Base year 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

Female total

41,748

43,608

45,501

47,379

49,092

50,616

56,113

59,667

65,396

75,390

Male total

41,223

43,118

45,053

46,977

48,743

50,325

56,178

59,819

65,654

75,792

Female (%)

50.32

50.28

50.25

50.21

50.18

50.14

49.97

49.94

49.90

49.87

Male (%)

49.68

49.72

49.75

49.79

49.82

49.86

51.03

50.06

50.10

50.13


Source: Parkland Community Planning Services (2006)

Notes:
Numbers in the table are baselines projections, established as a ‘most likely’ population growth outcome by Schollie Research and Consulting.