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Red Deer will continue to experience strong growth according to  The City of Red Deer Population Projection Update 2007 - 2031 completed by Schollie Research and Consulting.
Average population growth rate for the next five years is anticipated to be similar to what has been experienced over the past five years, which is approximately 4%. This assumes that the economic growth in the past years will sustain population growth levels for this period.
Over the next 25 years (2006 to 2031), The City of Red Deer is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.43 per cent annually. The slower growth rate used over the longer term in the population projection is reflective of an aging population and lower birth rate.
By comparison, the province of Alberta is projected to grow at a rate of 1.43 per cent annually (Source: Population projections for Alberta and its Health Regions 2003 - 2030.)
The complete population projection report projects population trends based on low, baseline and high growth scenarios. The baseline projection is considered the 'most likely' scenario.
Projected Population Growth - 2007 to 2031
|
Scenario |
2007-2011 Average Annual Growth |
2011 Projection |
2012-2026 Average Annual Growth |
2026 Projection |
2027-2031 Average Annual Growth |
2031 Projection |
Projection Period Average Growth |
|
Low Growth |
3.55 % |
98,774 |
1.38 % |
121,241 |
2.40 % |
136,502 |
2.02 % |
|
Baseline |
4.00 % |
100,941 |
1.76 % |
131,049 |
2.90 % |
151,182 |
2.43 % |
|
High Growth |
5.00 % |
105,888 |
2.56 % |
154,599 |
3.65 % |
184,945 |
3.26 % |
Source: Schollie Research and Consulting (2006)
Notes:
Baseline projections use the following assumptions:
Population Projection: Gender
In terms of the male-female split in Red Deer, there were more women than men in 2006. The population distribution between males and females is almost even and is projected to continue until 2031.
|
Census Year |
Base year 2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2016 |
2021 |
2026 |
2031 |
|
Female total |
41,748 |
43,608 |
45,501 |
47,379 |
49,092 |
50,616 |
56,113 |
59,667 |
65,396 |
75,390 |
|
Male total |
41,223 |
43,118 |
45,053 |
46,977 |
48,743 |
50,325 |
56,178 |
59,819 |
65,654 |
75,792 |
|
Female (%) |
50.32 |
50.28 |
50.25 |
50.21 |
50.18 |
50.14 |
49.97 |
49.94 |
49.90 |
49.87 |
|
Male (%) |
49.68 |
49.72 |
49.75 |
49.79 |
49.82 |
49.86 |
51.03 |
50.06 |
50.10 |
50.13 |
Source: Parkland Community Planning Services (2006)
Notes:
Numbers in the table are baselines projections, established as a ‘most likely’ population growth outcome by Schollie Research and Consulting.
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